Intelligence Brief: Nepal's King Reinstates Parliament
King Gyanendra has hoodwinked his people and thrown them crumbs as one would throw a cup of rice to a beggar. He is not giving up his throne. The people of Nepal should settle for nothing less. And who is this seven member coalition? Is it the common people longing for freedom under real democracy? Or is it communists come from China, infiltrating the movement so as to control the country and later have easy access to India's borders?
Editorial - PINR
http://www.pinr.com
After 19 days of protests, in which at least 13 people were killed, King Gyanendra went on television late in the evening on April 24 to announce that he would reinstate Nepal's dissolved parliament. The political parties, who were sacked by the king in February 2005, were planning on ramping up the protests to encircle Kathmandu's center the following day. Instead, crowds broke out in celebration. Arjun Narsingh K.C., a senior leader of the Nepali Congress, the largest political party, told Reuters, "It is the victory of the people's movement." However, this announcement may not herald the end of the tri-polar power struggle currently pushing Nepal into failure.
While the king has formally accepted one of the political parties' key demands, he made no mention of a path toward redrafting the constitution. This is the Maoist rebels' key demand, which was also taken up by the political parties last August. The political parties have given the rebels assurances that they will announce the forming of a constitutional assembly to address this concern. It is unclear how the rebels will react to the announcement. However, rebels attacked government buildings on April 24, leading to a firefight with Nepal's army, which killed six, including one soldier.
The question of a new constitution will almost certainly reopen the disputes that the king's announcement temporarily contained. If the constitution is not redrafted, the rebellion, which controls at least 50 percent of the country, cannot be subdued. However, the king is unlikely to allow his power to be dismissed by the flick of a pen, especially when he still controls the state's security forces. This is Nepal's Catch 22.
India played a key role in brokering the deal between the political parties and the king, as well as ensuring that the rebels understand that a constitutional assembly will be forthcoming. It knows Nepal's political situation as well as any party in Nepal. A key indicator to watch will be whether or not New Delhi resumes weapon sales to Nepal. India faces its own Maoist problem, and its main concern is containing the rebellion to Nepal's borders. If India believes that the king and the political parties will be able to form a stable alliance, weapon sales will resume. If India hesitates in resuming weapon sales to Nepal, all bets are off.
------------------------------
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader